Alternative Insight

The Fundamentalists Move to War
Creation of the Iranian Nightmare

Is a powerless Iran, similar to the previously powerless Iraq, a threat to the United States and does it have a reason to inflict damage to the U.S. before being attacked? If the U.S. attacks, Iran will be able to gather sufficient force to harm the U.S., militarily in Iraq and economically in the oil market. The latter harm can create a catastrophe for America. The U.S. has more to lose by hostile action against Iran than by quiet negotiations with the Islamic Repubic.

The Revolutionary government of Iran has always continued its efforts without regard to consequences. In its war with Iraq, Saddam Hussein made several overtures to end the war; all of which Iran refused unless Hussein stepped down - tens of thousands of casualties because of the refusal. Now, Iran is willing to challenge nuclear powers that demand Iran halt its nuclear developments. The challenge poses dangers to the world, but a greater danger is the wetted appetite of the extremist fundamentalist groups that might be eager to use an Iranian conflict to initiate a full scale fundamentalist war. Who else could be propelling this madness, creating an Iranian nightmare, especially when Iran is technically not in violation of the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty, couldn't have a nuclear bomb for many years and wouldn't be able to use nuclear weapons for offensive operations?

The creation of an Iranian nightmare requires examination.
Negotiation of problems with Iran can preferably be used to lead to world peace rather than world war.

What is Iran's Relation to the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
According to the NPT, Iran has not legally violated the treaty nor been accused of doing that. The treaty provisions permit signatories to enrich uranium and develop atomic energy. Nor has Iran violated any UN Resolution. The UN only asked Iran, in a non-binding Resolution to halt all nuclear activities, something it voluntarily did once berfore. Hyperbole and media reports generate hysteria and exaggerate the IAEA challenge to Iran. The NYT headline is accurate, but the text is exaggerated.

ELAINE SCIOLINO, New York Times, April 29, 2006
U.N. Agency Says Iran Falls Short on Nuclear Data

VIENNA, April 28 - Iran has drastically curtailed cooperation with nuclear inspectors over the past month as it has sped forward with its nuclear enrichment, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Friday.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), in the latest report by its Director General: Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran, accuses Iran of not providing sufficient information for "full transparency," which Iran disputes and which the IAEA report admits "goes beyond the measures prescribed in the Safeguards Agreement and Additional Protocol." The reports assessment:

B. Current overall assessment
33. All the nuclear material declared by Iran to the Agency is accounted for. Apart from the small quantities previously reported to the Board, the Agency has found no other undeclared nuclear material in Iran. However, gaps remain in the Agency’s knowledge with respect to the scope and content of Iran’s centrifuge programme. Because of this, and other gaps in the Agency’s knowledge, including the role of the military in Iran’s nuclear programme, the Agency is unable to make progress in its efforts to provide assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran.
34. After more than three years of Agency efforts to seek clarity about all aspects of Iran’s nuclear programme, the existing gaps in knowledge continue to be a matter of concern. Any progress in that regard requires full transparency and active cooperation by Iran — transparency that goes beyond the measures prescribed in the Safeguards Agreement and Additional Protocol — if the Agency is to be able to understand fully the twenty years of undeclared nuclear activities by Iran. Iran continues to facilitate the implementation of the Safeguards Agreement and had, until February 2006, acted on a
voluntary basis as if the Additional Protocol were in force. Until February 2006, Iran had also agreed to some transparency measures requested by the Agency, including access to certain military sites. Additional transparency measures, including access to documentation, dual use equipment and relevant individuals, are, however, still needed for the Agency to be able to verify the scope and nature purchased by the PHRC, and the alleged studies which could have a military nuclear dimension.
35. Regrettably, these transparency measures are not yet forthcoming. With Iran’s decision to cease implementing the provisions of the Additional Protocol, and to confine Agency verification to the implementation of the Safeguards Agreement, the Agency’s ability to make progress in clarifying these issues, and to confirm the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities, will be further limited, and Agency access to activities not involving nuclear material (such as research into laser isotope separation and the production of sensitive components of the nuclear fuel cycle) will be restricted.
36. While the results of Agency safeguards activities may influence the nature and scope of the confidence building measures that the Board requests Iran to take, it is important to note that safeguards obligations and confidence building measures are different, distinct and not interchangeable. The implementation of confidence building measures is no substitute for the full implementation at all times of safeguards obligations. In this context, it is also important to note that the Agency’s safeguards judgements and conclusions in the case of Iran, as in all other cases, are based on verifiable information available to the Agency, and are therefore, of necessity, limited to past and present nuclear activities. The Agency cannot make a judgement about, or reach a conclusion on, future compliance or intentions.
37. The Agency will pursue its investigation of all remaining outstanding issues relevant to Iran’s nuclear activities, and the Director General will continue to report as appropriate.

For the complete report go to: http://www.iranfocus.com/uploads/iaea280406.pdf

Additional understated information:

How Significant is Iran's Pursuit of a Nuclear Bomb?
Every effort should be made to prevent Iran, and all other nations, from pursuing or increasing nuclear weapon capablities. Nevertheless, according to observers of Iran's nuclear developments, the Islamic Republic could not acquire nuclear weapons for many years, will not have delivery systems (long range missiles, submarine marines, aircraft) to attack outside its continent and cannot use nuclear weapons for offensive means without being instantly demolished. Even with nuclear weapons, Iran is powerless in a war with the United States. Development of nuclear weapons is a bargaining chip for Iran; a deterrent against attack and a power play during negotiations.

What Problem is Iran to the United States?
Considering that Iran has always been antagonistic to the Taliban and Al-Queda, has not been proven to interfere in Iraq's political situation and has not shown any territorial ambitions, what problem can Iran be to a United States that supported the Shah, armed Iraq against Iran, has attacked Iranian installations and boats in the Straits of Hormuz and shot down an Iranian civilian airliner?

Iran is militarily hapless - no warships, mostly antiquated air force, dubious air defenses and some missile systems which can cause limited damage. Nevertheless, if USrael (U.S. or Israel ) attacks Iranian installations, Iran can cause excessive damage to the United States.

Washington has no issue with Tehran that cannot be negotiated. The U.S. does not prefer the Islamic government, but why is that a problem for the United States? After all, one of the best friends of the U.S. is Saudi Arabia, a fundamentalist Islamic nation.

Who is Leading the Creation of an Iranian Nightmare?
The Islamic Republic of Iran is guilty in creating its own nightmare. Iran has led itself into a trap by reacting in a non-diplomatic, confrontational and paranoid manner to hostile words against it. Iran is driven by fear. This fear arises from an examination of what motivates the United States.

War is usually driven by contests for resources or markets, by territorial expansion or defense or as a solution to economic problems. What is motivating the belligerent attitude of the United States toward a defenseless Iran? If it's the new phrase pre-emptive war, what is the reason for the future war, which is being pre-empted? After exhausting all possibilities, we are left with a reaction to the fear that Iran is experiencing, which is that its fundamentalist vision of unifiying the state with the Moslem religion is being singled out as threatening to the West, and Islam is being readied for attack by western fundamentalists, both Christian and Jewish.

Islamic fundamentalists believe they follow the final words of their God.The Christian fundamentalists believe it is their duty to convey the "true words" of their God and have a messianic mission to convert non-Christians to their beliefs. The Jewish fundamentalists believe they are the "chosen of God" and deserve to occupy the lands given to them by their God. They fear the western world will accept an Iran that is willing to exchange its development of nuclear weapons for measures that roll Israel back to its 1967 borders, derailing their mandate with God.

This thesis that extreme fundamentalists worldwide are propelling an eventual war in Iran is speculative and conspiratorial. That is true. Nevertheless,

Some of this smoke is bound to lead to fire and Iran is smoldering.

A Preferred Solution
If past actions by the United States, such as those concerning North Korea, Pakistan and India are indicative, then the U.S. will assuredly impel Iran to become a nuclear power. The international community can take advantage of the smoldering situation by realizing and addressing its consequences. Iran might be bluffing about the advances of its nuclear developments, but if forced to fight, the Islamic Republic will receive support from all sectors of the radical fundamentalists in the Muslim world. If this becomes a reality, the world will be headed towards an unwarranted and unnecessary catastrophe. So, what can be done? A preferred approach is to remove the reasons that Iran might have for pursuing nuclear weapons.

Naive and unworkable? Undoubtedly, but that only tells us where political incompetence, guidance by falsehoods and attendance to false prophets have brought the western world. Does anyone have a better solution that doesn't involve mass destruction?

alternativeinsight
May, 2006

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