Alternative Insight
The North Korean Challenge
President Bush's pronouncement of an axis-of-evil and his Administration's diplomacy have succeeded in accomplishing the inconceivable--transforming a destitute North Korea into a potential nuclear threat. North Korea's leaders are guiding their country by a history which has major military powers attacking smaller countries to increase defense lines or using them as a springboard to confront central powers of a region. Since the U.S. doesn't need North Korea to increase its defenses and is not inclined to attack China, the central power in the Asian region, the North Koreans don't fear an immediate U.S. attack. They fear another U.S. political strategy--maintaining the Korean peninsula in turmoil and preventing re-unification of the Koreas. A re-united Korea might create an economic dynamo and an independent military power which, if aligned with China, could present a formidable challenge to American economic and military dominance.
The North Korean Strategy
What would any country do that has been threatened by the world's major military power by being characterized as part of an 'axis of evil?' It would develop deterrents to protect itself against threats. It would ensure energy reserves and provide a military force that counters nuclear powers. It would develop nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction.In regards to North Korea, what has President Bush's indelicate pronouncement of an axis-of-evil and U.S. misapplied diplomacy accomplished? A recalcitrant Kim Jong IL remains a recalcitrant North Korean leader. An independent minded Roh Moo-hyun has been elected as the South Korean leader. U.S. diplomacy has motivated a weak North Korea into becoming a potential nuclear threat and pushed a closely allied South Korea into becoming an unreliable partner. This diplomacy might be viewed by history as a major U.S. foreign policy blunder. From Baghdad to Pyongyang, the axis-of-evil countries have no choice--develop weapons of mass destruction to protect their countries from weapons of mass destruction.
Political strategists recite a "nuclear bee-sting" alternative--smaller states having a nuclear weapon to deter major military action against them. North Korean leaders are demonstrating they are proponents of the alternative. The "nuclear bee-sting" proposition fits their strategy of preventing a U.S. military confrontation with them on the Korean peninsula.
Despite the military maneuvers
along the DMZ, North Korea has a good reason to believe their nuclear developments can proceed without aggressive action matching harsh rhetoric. America's principal foreign policy strategy is apparent--gain absolute control of the Middle East and its oil resources by subduing any country that can provide military muscle to Arab rebellions against U.S. dominance. Recognition of the thrust of the U.S. policy influences North Korea's policy.
Tensions on the Korean peninsula have developed pretensions. Although North Korea has provided a limited amount of missiles and weapons to other countries, Kim Jong Il knows that the principal American foreign policy focuses on the Middle East and does not directly involve North Korea. An American policy that is antagonistic to North Korea doesn't include the immediate use of military force to replace Kim Jong IL's regime. North Korea has breathing room and is taking advantage of the respite to guarantee its future. The U.S. policy in the Middle East has a direction that affects only one Asian country, China, whose increasing economic and military potential has made the U.S. government edgy. Decades of diplomacy and several confrontations show efforts by American administrations to contain China. The most popular method for containment--secure governments friendly to the U.S. in countries adjacent to the People's Republic. The Middle East policy has a role in the containment policy--deny a growing China, that needs increasing amounts of energy, a ready access to world oil reserves.
Another Bush Administration attitude favors North Korea's seizing the moment and behaving rashly--the U.S. wants to prevent re-unification of the Koreas. A military attack that subdues North Korea will enable re-unification.
An attack on North Korea must include South Korea as an ally. Victory will allow South Korea to incorporate the North. Does the U.S. Administration, despite what Washington states, desire re-unification of the two Koreas? A re-unified Korea, which combines South Korea's agriculture, industry and finances with North Korea's resources, industrial potential and military, can have sufficient power to act independently of the U.S., and could ally itself with China as a countervailing power to America's economic and military dominance. No matter how Korea is re-united, whether by the North succumbing to the South, the North subduing the South, or by autonomous states, Korea will emerge as a powerhouse that allows it to become independent of the United States.
South Korean leaders must be sharing a similar perspective--with hope, rather than gloom. The new generation in the South has shown little regard for American salvation and slogans. Just the opposite; Korean youth observe their country's sovereignty being compromised by a foreign nation. The newly-educated class has no interest in the fate of Saddam Hussein and sees the United States acting too aggressively and disturbing their peace. They fear North Korea, but have a greater fear that an American impulsive act could precipitate a major attack against them at any time. South Korea 's new president, new citizenry and new politics are breaking from the past close relation with the United States and steering themselves in a new direction. Re-unification, if performed in a manner that is acceptable to both sides, has benefits: it will end the turmoil in the Korean peninsula, remove U.S. reasons for its constant interference in South Korean affairs, and provide South Korea with a potent "bee sting," its own nuclear capability.
The North Korean leader's strategy thwarts the United States shaping of events that could grind North Korean into submission by denial of energy and by increased military threat. Don't wait until the U.S. is better prepared to subdue the North. Take the initiative and strengthen the military by all means. If it works, the U.S. will be paralyzed in its actions and South Korea will be impressed. With time, re-unification will occur.
The North Korean Challenge
North Korea is not threatening the U.S.It is challenging the U.S. Its bold maneuver in standing up against the world's super power effectively challenges the U.S. to move beyond the gates of Baghdad. Iran, the next in line on the axis-of-evil, must notice North Korea's success, at least for now, in challenging an aggressive U.S. intent. Iran has pursued nuclear developments and has kept secret if its developments include nuclear weapons. Imagine the U.S. dilemma--could it face a possible dual attack by nuclear weapons from its axis-of-evil nations?
It appears Saddam Hussein might soon be history. Will the approach the U.S. has taken to Saddam's demise, which has alienated most of the universe, signal the demise of the axis-of-evil parable? Thanks to President Bush, upstart North Korea, once looked upon as a disturbance to peace and most likely to start an international conflagration, has gained some respect and admiration.
North Korea might go down in history as the nation that awakened the world to the consequences of global sabre-rattling. It has shown that the nuclear world can become one big poker game, in which a challenge to a bluff can be an 'all win' and 'all lose' proposition. Which Texas gambler is willing to play that game when an 'all win' doesn't add much more to what he already has, and an 'all lose' means exactly that--leaving him with nothing. The odds greatly favor America, but the wager return is not worth taking the bet, despite the odds.
alternativeinsight
march 1, 2003HOME PAGE MAIN PAGE 
