Alternative Insight

Government Lack in Iraq Enabled the Attack
Intelligence and governance were missing


Can a Muslim foreign legion with limited training, have sufficient manpower, firepower and logistical support to sweep through a swath of Iraq, defeat a well equipped army of 120,000 in the area, and administer a city of 2 million inhabitants? We know it has happened, but there must be more to it.

News from Iraq is confusing and suspect, which makes it difficult to know what is really going on. A paucity of on site journalists who can confirm events results in selective gathering of happenings from unreliable sources. This has led to Arab news channels, which are mostly hostile to the Maliki government, being censured. Beirut based Al Akhbar, reports, "Offices of Al Arabiya, Al Arabiya, Al Hadath and ANB channels in Iraq witnessed mass resignations yesterday, as many employees protested what they called 'these channels' policy toward the Iraqi people and their support for the ISIS."

A sample of contradictory and changing headlines:

Washington Post-Jun 26, 2014
As insurgents rolled past the largest city in northern Iraq, an oil hub at the vital intersection of Syria, Iraq and Turkey, and into Tikrit, several gunmen stopped at Mosul's central bank. An incredible amount of cash was reportedly on hand, and the group made off with 500 billion Iraqi dinars - $425 million. (ED: Does any bank keep that much cash in its vaults?)

NBC News, June 24, 2014
A raid by Iraqi militants on Mosul's central bank and other smaller banks as they overran Nineveh province earlier this month likely did not provide the group with hundreds of millions of dollars, a senior intelligence official told NBC News on Tuesday. The Mosul heists did provide them with funds "to the tune of millions of dollars," said the official, but not "hundreds of millions."

Aljazeera.com-Jun 23, 2014
ISIL rebels control Baiji refinery in Iraq

Washington Post-Jun 26, 2014
Iraq maintains control over Baiji oil refinery

Aljazeera.com-Jun 27, 2014
Iraq's army 'recaptures' Baiji oil refinery.

Trend News Agency (news provider in the Caucasus, Caspian and Central Asian region). July 4, 2014,
Fighters from the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS) extremist group have been trying (emphasis by editor) to capture the Baiji facility for some two weeks.

The only constant in these reports is that north of Baghdad there is an oil refinery.

AINA News (Assyrian), June 26, 2014, 50,000 Assyrians Flee Fighting.
Fighting between ISIS and Kurdish forces in Qaraqosh (also known as Baghdede) has forced 50,000 Assyrians to leave the city.

AINA News, July 3, Kurds Provoked Confrontation With ISIS in Iraq:
A report issued by the Assyrian Federation of Sweden asserts the Kurds provoked the confrontation by entering Sunni Arab villages with bulldozers and attempting to dig trenches. On June 25 they entered the Arab villages, which led to clashes between the Arabs and the Kurds. The Arabs called ISIS and other groups near Mosul for support.

Reuters, June 24, 2014
After Mosul's fall, ISIL issued a "city charter" outlining its vision: Tobacco, drugs and alcohol would be banned, "pagan shrines" destroyed, and women were to dress modestly and stay home.

DER SPIEGEL June 30, 2014
But the drivers here aren't fleeing Mosul. They are heading back into the ISIS-held city. When asked why they are heading back, many offer the same answer: "Everything is peaceful there, normal. The ISIS people aren't interfering. Hospitals, the municipal administration -- it's business as usual everywhere." One driver says that the ISIS isn't even enforcing its smoking ban. "I drive in and out every day and I always smoke!"

Reuters, June 24
Nearly all of Mosul's Christians have fled, as have smaller groups like the Shabak Shi'ite Muslims and members of the syncretic Yazidi sect. Others are leaving as they fear Baghdad will bombard the city in a bid to win it back.

Associated Press, June 29, 2014
Thousands of Iraqi Christians flocked back to their homes in the north on Sunday, days after they fled villages under attack by Sunni Muslim extremists. Hundreds of people packed into cars, jeeps and buses were crossing a checkpoint on their way back after ruling Kurdish forces told them it was safe to return.

Miami Herald, 07.11.14, John Zarocostas, McClatchy foreign staff
U.N.: Islamic State executed imam of mosque where Baghdadi preached
GENEVA -- The Islamic State's executions of 13 Sunni Muslim clerics last month in Mosul, Iraq's second largest city, were a move by the radical Sunni movement to silence moderate voices among Iraq's Sunnis, and they deserve greater attention than they've received, the top United Nations expert on religious freedom said.

Note the UN byline.
But does the report come from the UN? No, it comes from a reporter at McClatchy newspapers who is quoting, "the top United Nations expert on religious freedom." And who is that person? He is Professor Heiner Bielefeldt, the U.N.'s Special Rapporteur on freedom of religion or belief, an independent expert appointed by the UN Human Rights Council.
And where did Mr. Bielefeldt obtain his information?

17th June '14 KNN
The ISIL terrorists executed 12 Sunni clerics in front of Al-Isra Mosque in Mosul for refusing to take an oath of allegiance to the terror gang ISIS, state-run broadcaster al-Iraqiya reported on Saturday.

And who is al-Iraqyia?
It is the Iraqi state run TV channel.

Maybe the story is true. If so, why have not the international; press and media carried this shocking report? True the clerics have not come forth to refute the report, buy do they want to shine a light on themselves? The news item needs more ratification before it can be trusted.

LA Times, July 12, 2014,
Gunmen in Iraq reportedly kill at least 30 in upscale Baghdad area
Gunmen killed at least 30 people, including 28 women, in the Zayouna area of Baghdad, Iraqi news reports say, Zayouna, home to many military officers who previously served under deposed strongman Saddam Hussein, remains one of Baghdad's most affluent neighborhoods. Unlike many of the capital's districts, Zayouna retains a mix of Shiite and Sunni Muslims, and is home to some members of Iraq's small Christian minority.

Telegraph UK, July 12, 2014
Gunmen kill 25 women in Baghdad prostitution raid
Writing left on the door of one of the buildings read: 'this is the fate of any prostitution'
Gunmen killed 25 women when they stormed two buildings in a residential Baghdad compound reputedly used for prostitution. "Unidentified gunmen stormed building number 43 in Zayouna, killing 10 women and wounding five. They also stormed building number 44, where they killed 15 women and wounded six men," a police colonel said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Can the U.S. State Department initiate policies when there is no assurance of the reliability of reports, and when decisions will contradict its present fight on terrorism - allying with enemies (Iran), making enemies from friends (Maliki, Gulf States), having friends assist their enemies (Saudi Arabia and Iraq ) and trying to accommodating everyone?

Dubious facts, incomplete communiqués and unverified rumors challenge a complete analysis. Although obscured by a Maliki government that wants to disguise losses and distracted by former U.S. government officials and allies who desire to rationalize their previous failures, the unfolding situation in Iraq surprisingly reveals past falsehoods, present realities and portends of the future. Several events, which contain interesting stories from participants in this mighty drama, clarify the moment and predict tomorrow.

Surprising words -- "regardless of their religion, sect or ethnicity" -- from the Saudis.

Daily Star / 04 Jul 2014
King Abdullah "has ordered $500 million in humanitarian aid to the brotherly people of Iraq affected by the painful events, including the displaced, regardless of their religion, sect or ethnicity," a Foreign Ministry spokesman told the official SPA news agency.

Apparently King Abdullah fears the announced Islamic Caliphate intention to extend to the borders of Saudi Arabia. This could be a game changer. Saudi aid to Sunni extremists may cease and Saudi Arabia and Iran may recognize that the ISIS threat demands cooperation and reconciliation. If this occurs, we might see a new dawn in the Middle East, less of blood red and more of harmonious colors.

How did the Russians get involved?

CNN 6/30/2014
Five Russian Sukhoi fighter jets have arrived in Iraq, the first of 25 warplanes expected to be delivered under a contract between Moscow and Baghdad, the Iraqi Ministry of Defense said in a statement.

Putin's bold move challenges U.S. hegemony and dominance in Middle East affairs, a relief for the American people and a troubling factor for the U.S. government. Actually, a blessing; let Russia be drawn into the abyss and receive the counter blows from ISIS terrorists.

Iranians claim they are not involved
.
Ynet News, July 4, 2014
An official Iranian source denied Friday that Iranian aircrafts or pilots were participating in the fight against ISIS alongside Iraqi forces, reported the Arab newspaper Al-Hayat.
The Iranian official made it clear that Iran was willing to cooperate with Iraq on numerous levels, in terms of diplomacy and intelligence, but it does not intend to get involved in the conflict directly. (Neemdor Semel).

Due to the always unverified accusations that Iran leads in committing international terrorism and creating instability in the Middle East, this report must be carefully followed. If it is proved accurate that the Islamic Republic has not sent military personnel to assist its closest ally in an extreme emergency, then previous charges of Iranian involvement in other battlefields and the nature of its foreign policy should be re-evaluated.

And, who is ISIS?
ISIS' presumptive declaration of forming a new Islamic Caliphate and designation of the caliphate's leader reveals additional mental aberrations in this terrifying organization. The new state undoubtedly has a close following of thousands of Muslims who see themselves as victims of a corrupt system that is exploited by the western world, but are there many Muslims who have consciences that cross borders and are ready to return to the atavistic arrangements of the 7th century AD?

Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, who claims to be a descendant from Muhammad, is now to be referred to as "khalifah Ibrahim." Portrayed as an efficient, well organized and adept organization, able to effectively use public relations to enhance its strength, this pronouncement downgrades ISIS' intended image as a force against the enemies of Islam. It smacks more as a power grab by a relatively few Muslims to be leader of the pack rather than heading a mission to defeat forces who contest the Sunni. Maybe the announcement can rally tens of thousands of Muslims who are disenchanted with their nations, but it alienates tens of millions of Muslims who place their particular Arab heritage and nationality before their worship, most not even considering the religious aspect in their lives.

Constructing a borderless nation, which erases the artificial Middle East national boundaries drawn by British diplomat Mark Sykes and French statesman Francois George-Picot of France, no longer has legs. The 21st century Middle East consists of diverse Arab constituencies and not a unified Muslim constituency. Nor does the mindset consider Arab lands as part of one kingdom, as King Faisal imagined after World War I. Arab constituencies welcome redrawing of borders and not their erasure.

U.S. State Departments and administrations (plural) are again scrutinized.
From the days when Saudi Arabian and Pakistan funds (possible source being the CIA) were shoved into Osama bin Laden's pocket, enabling the master terrorist to commander an engineering department commissioned to establish bases for fighters and help rid Afghanistan of the Red Army, U.S. policies have impelled a new version of the formless, stateless, and cave dwelling Al-Qaeda -- a well fed and well housed army that has its own declared state. A microbe has morphed into Godzilla. Is this real or a horror movie?

In the United States, those who led the U.S. into the calamities of Afghanistan and Iraq - former Vice President Dick Cheney, neocon Bill Kristol and former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, once again enlighten the world with their distorted interpretation of history. On ABC's This Week With George Stephanopoulos, Nation Magazine editor Katrina vanden Heuvel set it straight and told Bill Kristol that if he wants the United States to intervene in Iraq, "you should, with all due respect, enlist in the Iraqi Army. For example, the president should go to Congress if he's going to take military action in Iraq…. There's no military solution to Iraq, and I have to say, sitting next to Bill Kristol, man-I mean, the architects of catastrophe that have cost this country trillions of dollars, thousands of lives-there should be accountability."

One other party to this conflict, albeit behind the scenes, is Israel.
Israel has added a new dimension to the struggle.

Ever eager to assert that it is "America's true friend and not just a fair weather friend," Israel quickly undermined Secretary Kerry's plea to the Kurds to assist the Iraq nation and not declare independence.

Reuters, June 26, 2014
Israel told the United States on Thursday Kurdish independence in northern Iraq was a "foregone conclusion" and Israeli experts predicted the Jewish state would be quick to recognise a Kurdish state, should it emerge.

A bit too conspiratorial to suggest that Israel played a role in ISIS' successes, but not extreme to note it has not bothered to involve itself in countering ISIS. A rapid announcement that it is prepared to recognize a Kurdish state and breakup Iraq reinforces the contention that Israeli adherents played a role in pushing the United States into war with Hussein in order to weaken a potentially strong Iraq that could threaten Israel, a condition that exists until Iraq is dismembered. Another worthwhile investigation -- has Israel supplied weapons that aid and abet the Kurdish drive for independence and go back to the days of Saddam Hussein?

Israel has prominent reasons for an alliance with the Kurds - facilitates an entry to the border with Iran, finally has an ally among Arab nations, can sell weapons to increase its lucrative arms trade, and when the date arrives to combat ISIS, it may have a place from which to release done attacks.

Israel's present complacency to ISIS comes with risk. The kidnapping of the three Israeli youths showed ISIS presence in Hebron. A circulated pamphlet claimed that "an armed group affiliated with the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS) had apprehended the Israelis." Until evidence indicts another group, the pamphlet may explain the abductions.

Certainly Palestine is included in the caliphate.
Bruce Riedel, blogging about politics in Iran and policy toward Iran at the Brookings, July 6, 2014, explains the situation:

Ibrahim also claims to be from the prophet's tribe (Quraysh) and his family (Hashemi), and thus a direct descendant of Muhammad. But choosing the title Caliph Ibrahim is another step, he is styling himself as the modern equivalent of Ibrahim or Abraham, the creator of the Kaabaand thus the first Muslim. Mecca is the city of Ibrahim, not Muhammad (that is Medina). Ibrahim is, of course, buried in the Tomb of the Patriarchs in Hebron. That establishes his pedigree to defend Palestine.

Can sense be made from these contradictory reports?
ISIS knew what others did not want to know - the Maliki government has no administrative capability and exists mainly by patronage. In Mosul, morale was nil, and the military was not a defender but an uncomfortable occupying force. Similar to 1996 Kabul, when the Taliban, after being trained and assembled in the foreign country of Pakistan, sped into a city anguished by warring elements, ISIS convoyed from Syria into Mosul where civilians were only to glad to have anyone relieve them of the suffocating repression. But was it only ISIS?


DER SPIEGEL, June 30, 2014 quotes an anonymous professor, "You can't possibly believe that a few Chechens, Egyptians and Tunisians could bring Mosul under control on their own, can you?...The largest tribes participated as did other Islamists, and it was old cronies from Saddam's Baath Party who pulled the strings."

Are the remarks of one anonymous person sufficiently convincing?

Sada, online journal, part of Carnegie Endowment's Middle East program provides more information.
More Than ISIS, Iraq's Sunni Insurgency, Hassan Hassan, June 17, 2014

…non-ISIS groups have played a significant role in the fighting; according to local sources they not only took part in the fighting but have been the dominant force in several areas, including Mosul and Kirkuk. According to a report by Saudi Arabia channel Al Arabiya, the Islamic Army, believed to be the largest armed group after ISIS and the military councils, prevented ISIS from entering Dulu'iyya, around 55km(34mi) north of Baghdad after they took control of it, due to ideological divergences. Tribal forces, according to the same report, controlled areas such as Alam, Hajjaj, and Albu Ujail, and in Mosul tribal forces and Naqshbandis controlled areas such as al-Wahda, Sukkar, and Baladiyat.

Questions that beg answers:
Who are the 'local sources/"
Hasn't Al Arabiya been accused by its own employees of "exceptional bias?"

Washington DC based Freedom House, June 26, 2014, hosted a talk by Iraqi pollster Dr. Munqith al-Dagher, What Do Iraqis Think? Public Opinion Highlights Fault-Lines in Current Iraqi Crisis. The presentation can be partially viewed at: http://www.freedomhouse.org/event/public-opinion-highlights-fault-lines-current-iraqi-crisis#.U73BNpRdUuc

Dr. al-Dagher presented himself as being neither Shi'a or Sunni and only an Iraqi. During June 19-21, he polled 200 residents of Mosul by telephone and summarized the results:

  • ISIS has only 1000 fighters in Mosul, which are only 19.5% of the total.
    This means that only a total of 5000 insurgents took command of Mosul.
  • Only 10% of Sunnis view ISIS positively.
  • Only 2% of Sunnis support ISIS.
  • ISIS power has been exaggerated.
  • The Baathists are the strongest component of the insurgency.

The polling number was meager, and the polling technique suspect.
Undoubtedly some Sunni insurgent forces have assisted in the defeats of the central government military -- Army of the Men of the Naqshbandi Order (followers of the lone survivor from the deck of cards, Saddam's vice president, Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri), Muslim Scholars Council (led by cleric Harith al-Dari, a Saddam accomplice from Baghdad's Umm al-Qura Mosque), and Sunni Arab uprising (former officers and soldiers of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party) -- but none have taken credit or made themselves known as leading the charge. If these groups gain strength and consolidate under a single command, Iraq might witness a coup, in which a new military takes reign, throws out the al-Maliki rascals, and…and faces enormous difficulties trying to confront ISIS and subdue Kurdish ambitions.

Digesting and interpreting the contradictory Information leads to a plausible scenario of events.
A medium level insurgency has been raging in Iraq for several years, featuring car bombings, tit-for tat-killings, displacement of ethnicities and attacks on government operations. ISIS has brought the conflict to a new level - organized military operations that seize large territory and govern under a new flag. The Sunni insurgents are willing to permit ISIS to lead the charge as long as ISIS does not impose its extreme Islam on the Iraqi people. And ISIS is prepared to operate with caution until it realizes it has sufficient power to force its will. The two sides can live side by side for a while - those who follow fundamentalist Islam can obey their own instincts, others are free to behave as they want.

Adherence to Islam and forming representative government are not the dominant issues. The significant issue is economic - how to get the oil and gather sufficient resources to establish a prosperous region. Those who controlled economic and political power during the reign of Saddam Hussein realize they must relinquish some political power but want to regain their economic power, which means they will battle for oil fields and refineries -- the Kirkuk field in the north of Iraq and the East Baghdad field in the central part of the country and the Baiji and Daura oil refineries, which are close to Baghdad. The Sunni opposition knows that without assistance from ISIS it cannot succeed in these battles against Maliki, or in the larger battle with the Kurds for Kirkuk.

Pundits conclude that, as the fighting intensifies, Iraq will split into three countries. The scenario has problems -- even if the Kurds declare independence, never ending battles without victory will force the combatants to take a renewed look at the situation.

Before ISIS from Syria crossed the border and entered Iraq, a breakup of Iraq was more words than action and its occurrence was contained. Rather than enhancing the split in Iraq, the establishment of ISIS in Iraq should be reinforcing the regions in Iraq to cooperate and join together to fight a threat that is common to all of them. The dissidents in Iraq have found a cause and reason to be together. They only lack a unifying leader, an Iraqi who eschews sectarianism. As events unfold that need will become more apparent.

If the revitalized Baathists gain control of the oil fields and refineries close to Baghdad and the Shi'a constituency retains those in the southern part of the country, then southern and central Iraq might move to split. But what about the Kurds and ISIS? If Israel assists the Kurds military, which seems likely, then Iran will enter the war against the Kurds, which Israel wants. What better way to fight Iran then on Kurdish territory? The Kurds will suffer.

Will ISIS, who is fighting a 700 AD pursuit in 2014, help Iran fight the Kurds? They will sit it out. The Sunnis will have to join Iran in battling the Kurds for Kirkuk and eventually contending ISIS, a lose-lose situation for everyone except ISIS. It is preferable for the Shi'a, the Sunnis and the Kurds to get their act together, obtain a stable and representative government that functions equally for all, and work in unison to get rid of ISIS. Each battle between Shi'a, Sunni and Kurd weakens all three and strengthens ISIS.

Ignoring the Kurds as bona fide and equal citizens of an Iraq nation, which both Shi'a and Sunni have done in their ethnocentric struggles against one another is a key factor for resolving the civil strife. In retrospect, the Kurds have been most tolerant of all creeds, more capable in governing, more able to provide for their region, more able to establish satisfactory relations with foreign governments and more conciliatory than the other factions. The words of Fuad Hussein, chief of staff to Masoud Barzani, president of Iraq's Kurdistan regional government, spoken at Near East Policy Forum of the Washington Institute, July 11, 2014 spell out a worthwhile solution.

There is also a new reality in Baghdad. People abroad are asking us to lead the political process in Baghdad because there is a lack of leadership. We tried to maintain the unity of Iraq for the past ten years. The solution for Iraq is to have a federal structure so that Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds can each have their own areas. Instead of gradually building federal structures in Iraq, the country was headed toward a central system and dictatorship instead of democracy.

Kurdistan will be part of the new political process, but there must be a new government in Iraq. Policy failed in the current government, and those currently in power are responsible for the army's collapse. Yet they do not deserve all the blame, since a large part of the country has been hijacked by terrorists.

The United States and Iran can do nothing and ruin everything.
There are four groups fighting one another - Maliki's Shi'a government, Kurdish independence movement, Sunni Iraqis and ISIS, with latter two in a temporary alliance. The United States does not favor any of the factions, and Secretary of State John Kerry has spoken against Kurdish independence. White House corridors murmur of a hope that the Awakening, Iraq's Sunni tribes that helped defeat al-Qaeda in 2008, will reawaken and demolish ISIS. Too late - the U.S. no longer has any credibility with the Awakening or any other Iraq faction. The U.S. cannot assist Maliki, whom it has asked to step down, and certainly cannot arm the Sunnis, even against ISIS. For Iran it is the same - the more Iran assists Maliki the more the resistance to Maliki. Iran only wants stability in Iraq. If partition would bring stability the Islamic Republic would push for it. However, that is an unlikely case.

In an allied situation, President Obama's proposal to provide $500 million assistance to the Free Syrian rebels in order for them to confront ISIS in Syria demonstrates once again the emptiness and counter production of U.S. foreign policy. All that the aid will do is to enable Syrian rebels to kill ISIS personnel and ISIS to kill rebels. Assad wins in the end. Having the rebels between Assad and ISIS shields Assad from ISIS and ISIS from Assad.

Before making another foreign policy blunder, the Obama government should invoke sanctions against those who have supplied ISIS with their designer uniforms, advanced weapons and white pick-up trucks. After that, open an investigation as to how and why the U.S. invaded Iraq when it had nothing to gain and lost much -- instability in the Middle East, Iranian influence in Iraq with a bridge to Syria and the emergence of ISIS. Hussein was an equal opportunity dictator, attacking those who interfered, regardless if they were Sunni, Shi'a or Kurd. Maliki is a tyrant who discriminates, favoring the Shi'a. If Hussein remained, ISIS would never had entered Iraq, Iran would have no influence In Iraq, Christians and other religions would live peacefully, Iraq would be stable and probably prosperous, women would have a suitable role in society, hundreds of thousands of lives would have been saved and the daily disappearing patrimony of Iraq would have been preserved.

Bringing to justice those responsible for what history is sure to describe as severe criminal acts will demonstrate that the U.S. realizes its responsibility to its own citizens and its respect for international law. Progress will be made to resolve the ineptness of U.S. foreign policies and how they can be re-adjusted to defeat international terrorism and stabilize the Middle East.

Won't happen, but what a lovely thought.

alternativeinsight
july 2014

HOME PAGE MAIN PAGE

alternativeinsight@earthlink.net

comments powered by Disqus