Alternative Insight

The Road to Middle East Peace

A View from America


Part I-The End of the Zionist Dream

The Mid-East antagonists have failed to remove the land mines and pave a road to peace. Their negotiations reveal a new Israel, a continually growing nation that has detoured from the earlier Zionist "dream."

The Zionists who arrived in Palestine in the early 1900's had two demands: land and water. The land tied them to past ancestors, gave them a sense of freedom, and a release from the circumstances that bound them to a confined existence. The water soaked the land that produced fruitful crops that nourished the Zionist population. As the Zionist influx increased, their demands for land and water increased-and so did their problems.

In 1920, after the Zionist population had grown to 60,000 in a Palestine composed of 585,000 Arabs, a reporter noted that earlier settlers felt uncomfortable with the later immigrants. They were less willing to work at agriculture and had no capability to live off the available land.

It may not be generally known, but a goodly number of the Jewish dwellers in the land are not anxious to see a large immigration into the country. This is partly due to the fear that the result of such immigration would be an overcrowding of the industrial and agricultural market; but a number of the more respectable older settlers have been disgusted by the recent arrivals in Palestine of their coreligionists, unhappy individuals from Russia and Romania brought in under the auspices of the Zionist Commission from the cities of Southeastern Europe, and neither able nor willing to work at agriculture or fruit-farming.
The old colonists believe that what is required to help the country is the immigration of a moderate number of persons, who should be in possession of some capital to invest in agriculture, or have technical knowledge of farming; not, as proposed by the Zionist Commission, an unlimited immigration of poor and ignorant people from the cities of Europe, who, if they are unable to make a living in Western cities, would most certainly starve in an Eastern agricultural country. The presence in Palestine of such agricultural experts as the late Mr. Aaronsohn, and Mr. Moses Levine of the Jewish Farm at Ben Shamer, near Ludd, both American Jews of great talent, is of the greatest advantage to the country, and is generally acknowledged so to be by all classes of the population. The arrival of more such colonists would be welcome to all but the whole population will resist the Zionist Commission's plan of wholesale immigration of Jews into Palestine at the rate of one hundred thousand a year, until a total of three millions has been reached, which number they claim the country can support if cultivated to its utmost.
The existing Jewish colonists would protest at such an experiment; but the Mohammedan and Christian Arabs would do more than protest. They would, if able, prevent by force the wholesale flooding of their country by Jewish settlers whom they consider strangers and Europeans. -Zionist Aspirations in Palestine by Anstruther Mackay, as originally published in The Atlantic Monthly, July 1920.

As the earlier Zionist settlers had predicted, the later settlers who forsook the land for venture and finance, set a new direction for their compatriots. Their competition to Arab commerce and the displacement of Arab workers by Jewish immigrants, coupled with the entry of English speaking Zionists into the British mandate's administration, started the conflagration that has become a burning inferno of hostilities, vituperation and hatred. Anstruther Mackay's observations proved valid. The Arabs forcibly resisted the settlers.

Peace initiatives no longer incorporate the Zionist "dream." The portrayal of the Israeli as a visionary settler, a hoe in one hand and a rifle in the other hand, sustained Israel's image for more than a half century. This well distributed portrayal, with daily media articles on the Holocaust that had engulfed the Jewish people, together with cinematic versions of Israel's history, fueled world sympathy for the Zionist nation. Ten years ago the American public regarded Israel as an embattled and courageous country and would not fault its policies. Now, some of the media have revised historical perspectives. Hostility to Israel's policies appear in newspaper articles, letters, "talk radio," Internet message boards and chat rooms and indicate a sharp reversal from previously accepted views of the Mid-East conflict. Substance and hard facts are replacing myths. Apologies that tend to soothe harsh realities have become counterproductive. Mid-East strategists from both sides have been alerted to the changing perspectives and consider them in negotiations.

The changed values of Israel guide the new road to peace. The Israeli pioneer spirit is becoming a romantic memory. The factors that guided the early Zionist agricultural economy, land and water, have been replaced by new dictates. Although it sounds mundane and callous, the capitalist system and Adam Smith's definition of its principal factors-land, labor and capital- are now the driving force of a growing Israel economy. Each of these factors presently determine Israel's policies and its requirements for peace.

Similar to the closing of the tremendous American frontier in the 1890's, "little" Israel has reached its frontiers. Now it must consolidate its gains and prepare its future. And as for all industrialized countries, that future is not determined by the "average citizen." It is determined by the economic planners, the shakers and movers, the special interests that represent industry and the financial arrangers who own and distribute capital-by those who turn land, labor and capital into securities and solid cash.

The detour from the original Zionist vision has followed an uncertain path to a new vision. Whereas parts of the world, and especially the Arab nations, had perceived Israel as a Western interference in Mid-East affairs, as a surrogate quick reaction site for the United States to suppress "hostile" movements in the Mid-East and maintain the Arab nations in constant turmoil, Israel is now perceived as a potential benefit to Mid-East development. Rather than a Silicon Valley of the Mid-East, it might be considered the Switzerland of the Mid-East, a high tech and financial power that bridges developed western interests and developing Mid-East countries. Israel's well educated society, western entrepreneurial values and strategic location as a Mid-East entry with Mediterranean ports, predicts its future as:(1) The high technology center for Mid-East development and information, (2) The first refrain on a tourist trail that begins in Jerusalem and winds through ancient civilizations to India, (3) The ultimate stamp on high technology military development that provides defensive weapons to other nations, (4) The absorber and distributor of capital for fueling Western investment in Middle East economic developments.

Present animosities cannot stop future progress.The WWII powers submerged memories of strife and animosity for the mutual advantages of economic cooperation. Their prosperous 21st century appearance has made nations realize that relations and practices are best guided by economic cooperation rather than military confrontation. The benefits are obvious:prosperity and increased standard of living. The same need for cooperation is a suitable guide to Mid-East arrangements.

The factors of land, labor and capital are readjusting Israel's appearance and thrust. The statistics from the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics demonstrate Israel's approach to the land factor and the changed appearance of the agricultural industry that Zionist settlers preferred.

 PARAMETER  1996  1990  1980  1970  1960  
 Cultivated area  4370  4360  4386  4105  4075  10k dunams
 Employed persons  70.6  70.9  87.7  89.8  121.1  10k
 Net Capital Stock-Agriculture  2350  2481  2460  2076  1622  NIS10k
 Wheat  185  291  253  125  41  10k tons
 Vegetables  1187  1085  607  472  296  10k tons
 Citrus  932  1506  1542  1261  609  10k tons

Despite massive immigration and population increases:

  • Cultivated land remained stagnant after 1980.
  • The percentage of persons in agricultural employment has steadily declined.
  • Net Capital Stock of Agriculture remained stagnant after 1980.
  • Israel's most recognized crop, citrus fruits, that gave Israel a sweet and juicy identification, drastically declined after 1980.
  • Israel has managed to feed its nation and has not forecasted any problems of food distribution in the future.

Israel's need for additional arable land is no longer a major requirement. The original impetus for agricultural developments as a major support for the nation has faded. Many of the famous struggling Kibbutzim, previously regarded as the nation's agricultural vanguard, have graduated to industrial complexes that contain "country club" recreation and tourist facilities. Land for peace is a worthwhile trade-off. Israel has satisfied its land factor in its new economy.

The lower immigration, since the Russian influx in 1990, and a declining birth rate, have also diminished the imperative for more land.

Immigration to Israel: 1991-1998

111991
 1998  1997  1996  1995  1994  1993  1992 1991 
 57,700  65,962  70,605  76,381  79,844  76,805  77,057  176,100

Birth and Death Rates (per 1000): 1960-1996

     1996  1990  1980  1970  1960
 Birth Rate    18.2  19.4  22.0  24.2  23.9
 Death Rate    6.8  6.8  7.2  7.3  5.5

Nevertheless, the slowed population growth has aggravated labor demands.The "new" economy is more labor intensive. Security restrictions on Palestinian movements have prompted Israel to satisfy its severe labor shortage by importing workers from African and Asian Third World countries. If the Common Market countries' experiences with imported labor is relevant, the foreign labor may eventually cause social and other problems to Israel. Foreign workers need land and housing. Being far from home, the host country becomes responsible for their health, education and social concerns.The foreign workers export earnings rather than reinvesting in the economy. They may manage to obtain a permanent status and change the country's cultural identification. Israel will benefit from added use of local Palestinian labor. Its labor problems may not be resolved until that consideration becomes a reality.

The industrial statistics reflect the changing nature of the country and its demands for capital. All industry sectors, except leather production and leather products, have exhibited dramatic growth since 1990. Israel's three major industries are now high-technology, military hardware manufacture and tourism. The technological talent from the former "low tech" Soviet Union have played a key role in directing industry into cutting edge technologies of computer software and communications. Mutual R&D developments with the United States and 50 years of hostility and hostilities have propelled Israel to develop advanced armaments that are desired by many nations, such as China. Tourism benefits from important historical sites for Judaism and Christianity, Israel's warm climate and access to the Mediterranean and Elath beaches.

These three industries require massive investments of capital. The capital investment and tourism demand certainty, peace, and political stability. Capital investment demands influence Israel's peace initiatives. International companies continue to make direct investments in production and/or R&D facilities in Israel. They want their investments to be safeguarded. Israeli companies also demand equity capital, raising funds from selling stock in the US. In 1998, the market value of Israeli stocks in the US approximated $23 billion, representing the capitalization of about 80 companies. Financial commitments from the global economy will obligate Israel and compromise their actions. Prominent attention to the wants of capital investors direct peace initiatives and, as a result, determine security and water supply arrangements.

The water problem of the arid Mid-East will always be a major problem. Water scarcity is a worldwide problem. By capturing the Golan, Israel acquired its aquifers and alleviated part of its water problem. Yet, the water problem continues to generate adversity and problems with Syria, Jordan and the emerging Palestinian state. Water dispersal must be shared and contained. Actually, although water is a critical problem, statistics indicate that an attentive Israel can contain its water use.

Water Consumption in 1 million cubic meters: 1960-1996

 CONSUMER  1996  1990  1980  1970  1960
 DOMESTIC  597  482  375  240  197
 INDUSTRY  137  106  90  75  54
 AGRICULTURE  1297  1216  1235  1249  1087


The statistics indicate that (1) agriculture is still the predominant consumer of the water resource and this use has remained relatively constant for almost 30 years, (2) As population growth has slowed, growth in domestic use has also slowed, and (3) Industry is still not a major user of water. If land use for agriculture continues to decline, population growth stagnates and effective water conservation techniques are applied, water demands could be temporarily eased.

Strategists consider security measures as the more major impediment to a Mid-East peace agreement. Israel rightfully wants secure borders. The other Middle East countries also want secure borders, but first they want defined borders.The UN 1947 Proclamation defined Israel's borders. Although the Zionists realized antagonists surrounded their allotted territory, they accepted the UN Proclamation. Israel has greatly extended the borders originally granted to the Zionists. It cannot easily convince the world that it deserves all of that territory. The amorphous appearance of Israel's borders creates fear that Israel may use its overriding military power to arbitrarily extend its undefined borders. Defined borders and a military strong Israel, coupled with demilitarized zones and limited offensive military power for its antagonists, might be a basis for acceptable security measures. Nevertheless, it is likely that capital protection will determine security, and the drive to economic prosperity for all will direct the outcome of the negotiations.

The present peace negotiations are only a prelude to the final negotiation. The final negotiation will assure that Israel is accepted as a partner in Middle Eastern developments and prosperity. The new global order and worldwide capital movements will demand that of all Middle Eastern countries. But only after the Zionist vision of inward cooperation becomes fully replaced by a non-introspective and outgoing cooperative spirit that transcends all borders.

GO TO PART II
The Israel/Palestine Negotiations

alternativeinsight
revised september, 2000

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