Alternative Insight
Polling Analysis Favors Biden in Swing States
The headline in the USA Today article, Oct. 30, read, Polling averages show Trump gaining on Biden in most swing states. Will it be enough? USA Today failed to review the data sufficiently. Using USA averages of polling numbers, trend analysis indicates that Joe Biden will win swing states, except for Texas, Ohio, Iowa, and Arizona.
The trend analysis notes the shift in votes between the candidates and the shift of statistics to and from the undecided voters. In the last election, the undecided favored Trump and expectations are the same will be true in this election; at least 0.6 of undecided will vote for Trump. No Third Party appears to have sufficient popularity to disturb the election and become a spoiler. All undecided votes are considered to go to either Biden or Trump.
Arizona:
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 47.8%, Trump 46.4%
Monday: Biden 48.8%, Trump 46.1%
Biden lost 1 %, and Trump gained 0.3 %, which means 0.7 went to undecided. As a result, undecided is 5.8 percent. Because Biden is on steep decline, he could lose another 0.2 percent to Trump. Trend indicates that >60% of undecided, or 3.4 % of 5.8 percent undecided votes will favor Trump, which gives Trump a majority.
Trump wins Arizona.
Florida:
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.6%, Trump 46.9%
Monday: Biden 48.9%, Trump 47.0%
Biden lost 0.3% to undecided, and Trump lost 0.1%. Undecided increased by 0.4 to 4.5%. Votes have not shifted between contestants. Biden only needs 1/3 of undecided to win.
Biden wins Florida.
Georgia:
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.0%, Trump 47.0%
Monday: Biden 47.6%, Trump 47.1%
Biden gained 0.1% from Trump and 0.3% from undecided. Trend is to Biden, who needs only .41 of the 5% undecided vote to win.
Biden wins Georgia.
Iowa:
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 47.2%, Trump 46.6%
Monday: Biden 47.4%, Trump 46.3%
Biden lost 0.2% to Trump, who gained another 0.1% from undecided, which lowered undecided to 6.2%. Biden might shift another 0.2% to Trump, and will then need ½ of undecided, or 3.1%, to gain majority. Difficult task.
Trump wins Iowa
Michigan:
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.4%, Trump 43.1%
Monday: Biden 50.5%, Trump 42.7%
Biden lost 0.1% to Trump, who gained another 0.3% from undecided. Biden can lose 0.3% and all undecided to Trump and still win.
Biden wins Michigan.
Minnesota
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.1%, Trump 42.7%
Monday: Biden 49.4%, Trump 42.3%
Biden lost 0.3% to Trump, and Trump got another 0.1% of undecided. Still leaves 8.2% undecided. Biden can lose another 0.5% to Trump and get only 20% of undecided and still win.
Biden wins Minnesota.
Nevada:
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.1%, Trump 44.0%
Monday: Biden 49.6%, Trump 43.8%
Biden lost 0.2% to Trump and 0.3% to undecided. Undecided is at 6.9%. Biden can lose 1.0% to Trump and get only 0.3 of undecided and still win.
Biden wins Nevada.
North Carolina:
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.6%, Trump 47.3%
Monday: Biden 49.1%, Trump 47.2%
Biden lost 0.1% to Trump and 0.5% to undecided. Undecided is 4.1%. Biden needs only a little more than 1/3 of the undecided vote to win.
Biden wins North Carolina.
Ohio:
USA TODAY average of averages: Trump 46.4%, Biden 46.4%
Monday: Trump 47.4%, Biden 46.4%
Trump lost 1.0% to undecided. 7.2% remain undecided. Trump needs simple majority of undecided to obtain victory.
Trump wins Ohio.
Pennsylvania:
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.0, Trump 45.3%
Monday: Biden 50.0%, Trump 44.6%
Trump gained 0.7% of undecided. Still needs all of undecided to win. Biden needs only 0.1% from undecided and wins.
Biden wins Pennsylvania.
Texas:
USA TODAY average of averages: Trump 48.1%, Biden 46.3%
Monday: Trump 48.1%, Biden 46.8%
Biden lost 0.5% to undecided, which increases undecided to 5.6%. Trump needs only a little more than 1/3 of the undecided to win.
Trump wins Texas.
Wisconsin:
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 51.1%, Trump 43.2%
Monday: Biden 50.1%, Trump 44.4%
Trump lost 1.0% to Biden and 0.2% to undecided. All undecided can go to Trump and Biden still wins.
Biden wins Wisconsin.
Biden wins Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Trump wins Arizona, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas.
Prediction:
Biden gains 334 electoral votes.
Trump gains 204 electoral votes.
alternative insight
november 1, 2020